Voters in three states — Arizona, Missouri and Nevada — opted Tuesday to advance protections for abortion rights in their state constitutions. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is likely to win all three states in his victorious bid for the White House.
It’s a conundrum for Democrats, who hoped abortion rights ballot initiatives in those states would improve the prospects of their candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris. But data from VoteCast, a large survey of American voters conducted by The Associated Press and its partners including KFF, found that about 3 in 10 voters in Arizona, Missouri and Nevada who supported abortion rights measures also voted by Trump.
“We saw a lot of people who voted for abortion access and still voted for Donald Trump,” said Liz Hamel, director of Public Opinion and Survey Research at KFF, a nonprofit health information organization that includes KFF. HealthNews.
VoteCast is a survey of more than 115,000 registered voters in all 50 states conducted between October 28 and November 5. Its goal is to provide “the most accurate picture possible of who voted and why,” according to the AP.
About 1 in 4 of voters surveyed said abortion was the “most important” factor in their vote, although that number was higher among Democrats, young women, black adults and Hispanic adults.
Abortion rights referendums were passed Tuesday in seven states, including Missouri and Arizona, where state bans were overturned. Vice President Kamala Harris made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, but the VoteCast results reinforce previous polls that indicated economic concerns were the most important issue in the election.
Tuesday’s election was the first presidential election since the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court was overturned. Roe v. Wade. During Trump’s first term as president, he nominated three Supreme Court justices who later joined the 2022 ruling that eliminated women’s constitutional right to abortion care.
Mike Islami, 20, voted for Trump in Madison, Wisconsin, where he is a full-time student. She said abortion is “a woman’s right” that was “definitely in the back of my mind” when she cast her vote.
“I don’t think much is going to change” about abortion access during Trump’s second term, she said. “I think their policy is that they’re just going to give it back to the states and from there they can decide how important it is.”
The survey found that the percentage of voters who said abortion was the most important factor in their vote was similar in states that had abortion measures on the ballot and in states that did not.
When voters cast their ballots, they were most motivated by economic anxiety and the cost of filling their tanks with gas, housing and food, according to survey results. Trump won those voters both in hotly contested states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and in reliably Republican states.
Glen Bolger, a Republican campaign strategist, said the 2022 election results showed that Republican candidates are better off talking about the economy and cost of living than abortion.
This year, Trump voters who supported abortion rights amendments may have decided to take “Trump at his word that he was not going to support a national ban,” Bolger said. When casting their vote for Trump, he said, those supporters may have thought, “Let’s elect him to take care of the cost of living, health care, gas and everything else.”
The VoteCast poll found increased support for abortion ballot initiatives from female voters: 72% of women in Nevada, 69% in Arizona, 62% in Missouri.
Erica Wallace, 39, of Miami, voted for Harris and for a ballot measure on abortion rights in Florida, which did not meet the 60% threshold needed to amend the state constitution.
“As a grown woman, you go out and work, living your life,” said Wallace, an executive secretary who lives in Miami. She said the state ban, which criminalizes abortion care before many women know they are pregnant, amounts to unequal treatment of women.
“I pay my taxes. “I live well,” he said. “I’m doing everything any other citizen does.”
Men were more likely to vote against protecting abortion rights. Men voted 67% in Nevada, 64% in Arizona and 55% in Missouri in favor of abortion rights ballot initiatives.
The VoteCast poll found that voters generally believed Harris was better suited to handle health care. This is consistent with the long-held view that “Democrats traditionally have the advantage on health care,” Hamel said. Still, Trump led Harris among more than half of voters who said they were very concerned about health care costs.
Family premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance increased 7% in 2024 to an average of $25,572 a year, according to KFF’s 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey. On average, workers contribute $6,296 annually toward the cost of family coverage.
“Everyone is affected by high health care costs and no one has a solution,” Bolger said. “That’s something that frustrates voters a lot.”
Florence Robbins in Madison, Wisconsin, and Denise Hruby in Miami contributed to this report.
